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Post by mo on Sept 29, 2011 13:21:11 GMT -5
Joey, Send me an e-mail and I'll reply back with a file that answers your question about disposition statistics, (w/colorful graphs) by geographic location none-the-less . . . Too bad NJ MUFON forced me out, they could have used my active participation with ongoing analytics at HQ. They did not like my case work findings . . . (Hoax, Indufficient Data, IFO, Natural Phenomenon). I was told not to use Hoax by my state director, (this means I would have to misrepresent my findings). You can't conclude it's unknown unless you have the evidence to support that finding just like any other finding. So much for science I guess. Anyway, if you would like the charts, send me a note or goto: to get the file for yourself, (bottom of profile). Best Regards, Kristen kristenwinslet@verizon.net Here is an example of a case disposition that was changed. Witness Description my husband seen it last night he was driving to his store on washington ave in belleville nj when a very large shiny object cought his eye he looked at it for a minut or two and went inside the store to update his computer for the next day when he came out it was still there not moving and no sound.so he seat in his car for a minut and whatched it as it slowly started moving west.at this point he lost sight of it because of buildings and trees.my husband never beleived in ufos and makes fun of me for beleiving.i was just whatching ufo hunters last night.so he comes home a little before 3 am and wakes me up.his words wer honey if u seen it u would have bin going nuts.i said why what happend he said i just saw something in the sky it was very large and it was all lit up.so i nade him describe the shape of it.was it round,was it square he said no it kind of looked like an apartment building.it went up and down.didnt have straight sides.now newark airport is right there i mean from belleville its only about 10 15 minuts away.if anything they should know something about it. CASE Analysis: As no other witness(s) to this specific event has been identified and no other possible explanation to this event can be made by this witness or by this investigator based upon the theories provided, I believe that the evidence afforded by the witness is inconclusive. However, the theory that the object sighted by the witness was a large aircraft in the flight pattern at Newark International Airport is quite plausible. As a result of this analysis and evaluation of all the evidence provided, I believe that this case file # US-NJ-2008.12.03 baring the introduction of any further substantiating evidence can be considered closed as �IFO - Man Made Object� in the MUFON Case Management System. ------------------------------------------- I personally would have concluded Insufficient Data and I would have followed up by contacting ITC in the area and checked 911 calls usually if there is a no show of info and it is only one witnesses there is not enough to conclude either way. No analysis was conducted from what I can tell, more or less a theory based off the current facts which is fine and should be concluded as such. Your report is still there and standing in all your reports which is great work. I am not understanding the forced out item. You may e-mail me directly to discuss. morgan.fl.mufon@gmail.com |
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Post by mo on Sept 29, 2011 13:24:52 GMT -5
Thanks, Kristen and Isaac for pointing out the forum to others and the invitation to join the discussion. The analyses of the CMS Case data is interesting, but raises several questions. Since it's been highlighted in media that there has been "a large increase in UFO reports," my concern is that there doesn't seem to be empirical data to support the statement, at least not from what I'm reading. And Peter Davenport's database shows that there were far more reports in August 2010 than in 2011, so there seems to be some conflicting numbers around. As for specific data sets, I was surprised to read that the CMS spreadsheet has only 7 (seven) cases in Canada in 2008, whereas that year Canada posted an all-time high for UFO reports, of more than 1000 cases! Furthermore, we identified more than 11 (eleven) per cent of the 1000+ Canadian cases had come from MUFON sources. Am I reading the tables wrong? A lot of it has to do with how and when MUFON is marketed to the public. Many people do not know about us thus has a direct effect on case report numbers. There are a lot of geographical factors as well specially dealing with population densities. |
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Post by rutkows on Sept 29, 2011 20:49:00 GMT -5
Thansk rutkows. I check your site and found out that there are two spikes on your 2008 graph. What are these things do you think? BTW, do you happen to know if canada was influenced by other countries like europe and the US regarding ufo phenomena? How did ufo originate from your place? thanks lawsinium: I don't know which spikes you are referring to, as there's no 2008 graph on our site. Do you mean spikes in monthly report numbers? Canada was influenced by other countries in that its defences are linked to those of the USA, so military intelligence is shared between the two. However, Canadian ufology has been linked to the more experiential European ufology since the 1980s, and is a hybrid of the two approaches. I don't understand your question about UFO originating from Canada. |
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Post by lawsinium on Sept 30, 2011 12:11:51 GMT -5
rutkows: I'm sorry. I was talking about the number of sightings from 1989 to 2007.
Based on this report, there are two major spikes on your graph, between 1993-94 and 2004-05. Do you have any conclusive analysis what do they represent?
I'm sorry about the misunderstanding. Well I'm trying to trace backward how the concept of UFO or alien or spaceship came into being. Since you live in canada, I just want to find out how these terms were conceptualized in your place if ever? Who concpetualized these words, when and where? If canadian ufology is a hybrid of both US and Europe, then it follows that the idea originated between these two countries. If so, how did the concept of ufology get into canada: literature (books), media (news), invasion (medieval) or artifacts (ancient)?
BTW, is it okay if i will post your link on my site?
Thanks.
joey
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Post by mo on Oct 3, 2011 7:38:52 GMT -5
Lawsinium, what are your thoughts of interpretation of events? What once was viewed as witchcraft is now science. Another good reference is the pilot society theory as depicted in the movie "The Gods Must Be Crazy".
Interpretation and culture will sometimes drastically change how a possible UFO event is described. The notion that the UFO events have changed and not the interpretation over time is in my opinion inaccurate. I suspect that many of the past sightings were the best explanation the witness could come up with. In the not so distant past many civilized societies didn't have a concept of extraterrestrial or unusual natural phenomena.
This may be a more anthropological issue rather than statistical, and may be the reason for skewed data.
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Post by rutkows on Oct 3, 2011 10:48:12 GMT -5
rutkows: I'm sorry. I was talking about the number of sightings from 1989 to 2007. Based on this report, there are two major spikes on your graph, between 1993-94 and 2004-05. Do you have any conclusive analysis what do they represent? I'm sorry about the misunderstanding. Well I'm trying to trace backward how the concept of UFO or alien or spaceship came into being. Since you live in canada, I just want to find out how these terms were conceptualized in your place if ever? Who concpetualized these words, when and where? If canadian ufology is a hybrid of both US and Europe, then it follows that the idea originated between these two countries. If so, how did the concept of ufology get into canada: literature (books), media (news), invasion (medieval) or artifacts (ancient)? BTW, is it okay if i will post your link on my site? joey Joey: No problem posting anything by me. I'm not sure what caused the spikes in 93/94 and 04/05. It could be something as simple as a n increase in public awareness of places to report sightings. It could also be an artefact caused by a flap/wave related to a major widespread event, such as a spectacular fireball that generated 100+ reports. I seem to recall that there were a few of those during the past 25 years. The idea that UFO=alien has been around a long, long time. I think Jerry Clark and others have traced the etymology of the term. Popular culture embraced "little green men" in the 1940s and 1950s, and Canada would have followed suit along with America. The term UFO immediately conjures up images of aliens today, regardless of the country. This is not helped by numerous UFO websites that blather on about alien contact. Not sure if this helps! |
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Post by lawsinium on Oct 3, 2011 21:59:51 GMT -5
mo: I agree with you that science origins begun as a pseudoscience. And actually it started as a "religious" cult. The witchcraft of alchemy is now called chemistry, astrology is now astronomy, acupuncture is now to medicine, phrenology is now neuroscience and theology of creation is now the science of evolution.
Events, imho, is nothing but a day to day acivity by mother earth. Earthquakes, floods, monsoons and other natural catastropic events are ways to balance the need to stay alive or function mechanically.
However, if you are talking about UFO sightings, I would say that they are misrepresentations created by the mind. They exist but they are labelled incorrectly. The distant past might not have the concept of UFO/alien but it doesn't mean they are of outerspace. If they do, most probably these are natural phenomena.
Data doesn't carry any meaning unless they are interpolated and extrapolated.
rutkows: that's the thing, data analysis is important in any scientific endeavour. It provides us a bird eyeview of what is taking place in general and a worm's eye view of what is taking place specifically.
I will check Clark's book in the library sometime this weekend.
Guys, thanks for the info.
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Post by avalonswan on Dec 10, 2011 14:45:44 GMT -5
I have not had a chance to go through and thoroughly read all posts in here so please forgive if I repeat a question. This is relevant to my MUFON Tracker project I have on the Optical Devices and The Science and Psychology of observation threads. To point has anyone done an analysis to see if statistical hot spots exist. One thing that I always have to battle in forwarding my concept is the belief that UFO sightings are always one off events with no predictability whatsoever, therefore to build a tracking vehicle is simply a stupid foolish folly (Do note the absolute tone in the argument). Now I understand that a large percentage of cases are one off's but I am also in the understanding that there are areas where these sightings are more prevalent than most. If the stats can pin point areas that see frequent events or are above average, with any sort of regularity, then we are half way there to preposition sights for the tracker.
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